By the Numbers...

Contributed by Clif Hodgman of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. in Kalamazoo
September 27, 2010

1. AVERAGES VS. ACTUALS - Over the last 20 calendar years (i.e., 1990-2009), the best performing month for the S&P 500 was May, up +2.08% on average (total return). Over the same 2 decades, the worst performing month for the S&P 500 was September, down 0.72% on average. The actual result for the stock index during May 2010 was a loss of 7.99%, its worst monthly performance in 2010 (so far). The actual result for the stock index during September 2010 through last Friday (9/24/10) has been a gain of +9.57%, its best monthly performance in 2010 (so far). The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market (source: BTN Research).

2. WHO GOT WHAT - The top 5% of households accounted for 21.7% of all pre-tax income in the United States in 2009. The top 20% of households accounted for 50.3% of all pre-tax income in the United States last year (source: Census Bureau).

3. SOME INCENTIVE?! - Americans filing a joint tax return in 1953 paid a top marginal tax rate of 92% on taxable income above $400,000 (source: Internal Revenue Service).

4. PUTTING IT INTO PERSPECTIVE - $400,000 of taxable income in 1953 is equivalent to $2.8 million in today’s dollars (using CPI data). The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of inflation compiled by the US Bureau of Labor Studies (source: Department of Labor).

5. STAY THE COURSE - The Fed voted 8-1 last Tuesday (9/21/10) to leave short-term interest rates unchanged, its 14th consecutive meeting over the last 20 months that has ended in no change (source: Federal Reserve).

6. GET YOUR OWN PLACE - As of the end of 2009, there was an average of 2.6 people in every American household. There are just under 118 million total households nationwide (source: Census Bureau).

7. DECLINING MEMBERSHIP - 1 out of every 3 American workers (34%) was in a union in 1945, i.e., just after World War II. 1 out of every 8 American workers (12%) was in a union in 2009 (source: Department of Labor).

8. JUST FOUR STATES - 62 of the 125 banks that have failed YTD in the United States (i.e., 50%) as of 9/17/10 are located in 4 states. Florida leads with 23 failures, Illinois is 2nd with 15, Georgia is 3rd with 14 and California is 4th with 10 bank failures (source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation).

9. JUST FOUR STATES, PART TWO - 160,592 of the 338,836 properties that received a foreclosure filing in August 2010 (i.e., 47%) are located in 4 states. California led with 69,143 problem properties, Florida was 2nd with 56,877, Michigan was 3rd with 17,764 and Illinois was 4th with 16,808 (source: RealtyTrac).

10. BAD BANK - The largest commercial bank failure in US history (Washington Mutual) took place on 9/25/08 or just over 2 years ago. Washington Mutual had assets of $328 billion at the time it failed (source: FDIC).

11. HEALTH INSURANCE STATS - Over the last 20 years (i.e., 1989-2009), the number of Americans that receive their health insurance through the government (i.e., Medicare, Medicaid, or military health care) has increased +62% to 82 million folks. Over the same 2 decades, the number of Americans that receive their health insurance through their employer or through their own direct purchase of coverage has increased +7% to 171 million folks (source: Census Bureau).

12. IT’S FINALLY OVER - It was announced last Monday (9/20/10) that the US recession that began in December 2007 officially ended in June 2009, resulting in an 18-month downturn for the economy. It was the longest running recession in our country since the Great Depression of 1929-33, an economic slump that lasted 43 months. The 9/20/10 announcement came 447 days after the recession officially ended (source: National Bureau of Economic Research).

13. WHY GROWTH IS NEEDED - An individual living on a fixed income over the 20 years from the end of 1989 to the end of 2009 would have suffered a 40% loss of purchasing power over the 2 decades using the CPI as a gauge of his/her inflation (source: Department of Labor).

14. WHY GROWTH IS NEEDED, PART TWO - A husband and wife both aged 62 have a 47% chance of at least 1 of them living to age 90 or older (source: Government Accountability Office).

15. FOOTBALL - The 10th most valuable NFL franchise (Denver Broncos) is worth an estimated $1.05 billion. The 10th most valuable stock in the S&P 500 index as of 8/31/10 (i.e., based upon total market capitalization) was worth $144 billion (source: Forbes, S&P).